Stock Portfolio Ending 04 May 2007

Howdy people... yup... I am still alive and am still in Nigeria. It has been 2 months since I was here, shed a bit of those unnecessary fat and yeah... been doing nothing here too. Project has not yet started and we are just hanging around doing nothing. Though with the free time many I still does not have the time to really monitor the movement in the market due to time difference. Here in West Africa is at GMT +1 compared to our country which is at GMT +8. So it is kinda difficult to wake up in the wee hours to check on the stock market.

Wow, we have finally surpass our previous high and heading towards the 1,400 mark. Woohoo... It is now the 5th month since this blog's inception, lets see how the performance compared to the KLCI. In the first week of January 07, my "fund" value stands @ RM99,800 while the KLCI is @ 1,096 points. As of today, my "fund" value stands @ RM114,200 and KLCI @ 1,363. That is an increase of only 14% compared to KLCI increase of 24%!!! @#$%^%$#@

I had adjusted the dividend from BJTOTO (RM0.125) & CYMAO (RM0.05 TE) to my portfolio. Others remain the same. My wish by the time I get back to Singapore is that my portfolio will double it's amount or better still reach the RM0.5 million mark. Kekekeke... Dream on toto! Continue to dream... :)

Stock Portfolio Ending 06 Apr 2007

Greetings from The People’s Paradise… Wow... It has been a while since I did any updating on my portfolio; the last update was in February. For your information I am currently in Nigeria, some 24 hours flight away from my hometown. I think I am going to be stuck here from quite sometime due to work commitments. The place is not as bad as they look in the papers, kidnappings and stuffs are still going on, but their targets are mainly oil related companies. For those who have not been to Nigeria, this place is like 20 - 30 years behind Malaysia. Can you imagine there are still roads without traffic lights? Hur hur…

During my absence, we experience some ups and downs over the markets. At one time, our KLCI hit a low of 1,090 points but soon recover as the regional bourses got back to their feet. Over the meltdown, most of my holdings are not spared as well. They took the beating and now they are back to where they were (some even higher) before the downfall. Now, the KLCI is approaching the previous high of 1,285 points made on 26 February 2007. It does seem that the resistance will be very much intense as it reaches that level. This week, my portfolio inch up 4.90% compared to KLCI's 2.57% rise. As of today, my portfolio managed to return 21% from my initial capital, though there is nothing to shout about. I am pretty sure most of you all out there manage to get a higher return than me.

So far, my portfolio seems performing well, BJTOTO latest quarter was very much inline with the expectation. Dividend for the previous quarter has risen from RM0.11 to RM0.125. Cashflow seems strong and well taken care of. Also, BJTOTO manage to reduce their debt of over RM360 million incurred during the previous capital repayment to RM140 million in 2 quarters. Like I said in my previous write up on BJTOTO, I do foresee that their nett debt to be wiped out in no time. BJTOTO remains a cash cow and a strong dividend play.

LIONDIV too has performed reasonably well; manage to hit an all time high of RM8.80 from RM6.00 a month ago. Well, any profit taking during this region is not questionable; you can’t expect the share price to appreciate everyday without any form of dip. Any consolidation will prepare the share price for the next run up. Parkson HK was last closed at HK56.00+ closing to the target price of Goldman Sachs. Can there be any adjustment to the LIONDIV - ACB deal? Like I have stated previously, the China market is huge, and LIONDIV will set to benefit from it.

Lately, the copper price has risen to USD7,200 per tonne as of yesterday's closing from a low of USD5,500 per tonne recorded months ago. The all time high for copper price is at USD8,800 per tonne which doesn't seem far off. Will the price increase contribute to TAWIN's bottomline? As of today, TAWIN seems to have broken of their downtrend with substantial increase in volume and price. Do note that, TAWIN is a speculative stock, so do justify your risk reward before jumping into it. News like potential take over target seems to have faded off well after the previous run. Will there be any form of "news" now to push the price up again? However, they do seems pretty cheap now; looking at TAWIN which made an EPS RM0.406 last financial year bringing it to a PE 4x.

CYMAO, the wood related stock in my portfolio seems to have recovered from its low after a poor set of result last quarter, mainly dampen by a poor output from the plywood manufacturing side. Recently, CYMAO announce a tax exempt final dividend of RM0.05 bringing its dividend to RM0.10 for the previous financial year. Dividend yield came at 6.13% based on my acquisition price. Balance sheet seems reasonable with a nett debt of only RM16 million or 0.13x of its market cap.

Anyway, I will continue to do some updating when time permits. Till then, Chiaoz….

Lion Diversified Holdings Berhad (LIONDIV, 2887, RM7.05)

Lion Diversified Holdings Berhad has interest in retailing, property development and computer business. LIONDIV used to have a brewery business in China, which has been disposed in 2003. Its retailing unit has a nett income of RM203 million in 2006 while its property development and computer business unit manage to chalk up RM30 million and RM22 million respectively.

The group’s investment in the retailing industry is through its chain of 68 Parkson departmental stores, with 29 in Malaysia, 38 in China and 1 in Vietnam. Its nett income for the 1st Qtr 2007 was RM77 million compared to RM21 million a year ago. That is huge jump of over 270%. This indicates how robust is the retailing industry under LIONDIV. Excluding all exceptional gains, LIONDIV previous quarter still came up 80% compared to the 4th Qtr 2006. Looking at the figures and the China factor, I would say LIONDIV is definitely a growth story pending to be written.

People in China are spending more, restaurant and food industries are booming, many are eating out and last but not least, their shopping malls are always packed. I have already noted my optimism towards LIONDIV in my previous post after my recent trip to Chongqing, China. The tabulation above shows the calculation of LIONDIV value which is solely based on its 55.5% stake in Parkson Group that is listed in HKEX together with the cash in its piggy bank. Not to forget LIONDIV other business unit are also profitable, its property development unit in Bandar Mahkota, Cheras and its computer business segment under the banner, LIKOM. So do you think LIONDIV is undervalued? Its definitely a YES for me. . .

Regarding the previous announcement on the LIONDIV - ACB deal whereby a sale of Parkson Group to ACB was valued at a measly RM4 billion but based on the latest transacted price for Parkson Group over at HKEX, it should easily be valued at RM6 billion based on its 55.5% stake. Well, this cannot be blamed as the announcement was first mooted somewhere in September 2006 when Parkson Group was trading at HK$29 and the price tag of RM4 billion do sound reasonable at that time. Since now the price of Parkson Group has surged to HK$48.05 (Target price by Goldman Sachs : HK$56.10), should any ammendments be made to the previous proposal? Should we be getting 2 ACB shares for every 1 LIONDIV share instead? Of course many can say that after the proposal, the precious assets of Parkson Group still stays within the LIONDIV's stable, but at the end of the day would it be fair to its minorities for selling the assets worth RM6 billion at a huge discount?

Kong Hee Fatt Choy

Totomaster would like to take this opportunity to wish all a very "Happy Chinese New Year". Wishing all readers a very prosperous and abundance health ahead. . . Eat more, Drink more & Be Merry. . . Kong Hee!! Kong Hee!!

Stock Portfolio Ending 09 Feb 2007

Last week, Totomaster did not manage to update his stock portfolio due to work commitments. Totomaster was posted away to Chongqing, China for a week to perform some inspection works. During this period, Totomaster went for some sight seeing over at Sanxia, long boat rides with full view of mountains, waters and pretty scenery. Its good to take a rest and some time off the current market. Beautiful skies, chilling weather, cheap food, cheap beers. . . but arggghhhh. . . the MARKET CONTINUE TO RALLY AND I END UP MISSING MOST OF IT!!! But its okay. . .

Hhmmm. . . over the 2 weeks period, the KLCI creep up 6% thanks to the good run up from the blue chips. Well no doubt it does outperform my portfolio by more than 3 times. During this time, BJTOTO being the most laggard of all blue chips finally broke off its down trend triangle and surge to a high of RM4.96 with huge volume. However, as of today it seems that it will soon get back to the down trend again due to profit taking. Boo boo boo. . .

I have dispose the whole lot of MAEMODE-WA @ RM0.54 last week as I see further selling pressure towards the mother share. In turn, I have purchase 10,000 units of CYMAO @ RM1.62 leaving my cash balance at a mere RM309.09. The reason I have swapped to CYMAO is noted in my previous posting on timber industry. TAWIN too has made a rebound from its low @ RM1.62 to hit a high of RM1.82 but succummed to profit taking and is currently lingering at the RM1.70+ level. Has the share price been manipulated?

LIONDIV is currently trading sideways for a few good weeks already. However, this is not the case for its retailing chain subsidiary Parkson Retail Group Ltd which is listed in HKEX, which has recently surge to a new high of HK$49.60 with a target price of HK$56.10 set by the reputable Goldman Sachs. In which I feel that LIONDIV will move in tandem with the share price of Parkson. Do note that the 2nd quarterly results for LIONDIV will be due some time this month. In my visit to Chongqing, I am surprise that there is a Parkson mall over there. According to the locals, Parkson is planning to spore like mushroom all over mainland China. If Parkson were to be introduce in over 30 provinces in China with a population of 1.37 billion, could you imagine what the growth would be like for LIONDIV in future? But their recent proposed disposal of Parkson to ACB is kind of unfair to LIONDIV minorities, because LIONDIV has given away the most precious assets away. Thus, LIONDIV will always trade at a discount due to it being a holding company status!

Timber Industry

As everyone should know, the timber industry in Malaysia is going through a boom for quite sometime. Share prices of all timber counters have shot up by a huge percentage, some have even gone up more than 100% over the last 12 months. Big timber companies, for instance, TAANN have shot up from RM5.60 a year ago to currently trading at above RM10.00. Table above shows some of the timber related companies that I manage to extract. Do tell me which would be your best pick?

Mine would be CYMAO, first, the share price is currently at a consolidation stage (for quite sometime already IMO), secondly, its kind of undervalued compared to it peers. I think CYMAO can easily trade above RM2.00 based on its latest results. First 3 quarters CYMAO's EPS almost surpass the EPS for the entire year of 2005. Of course, many can say commodity prices is always fluctuating depending on demand - supply equation but can one guarantee the price to drop back to their all time low? If the high price is here to stay, now would be the best entry for CYMAO as it is undergoing consolidation.

Since CYMAO its more into plywood products, do go through the graph below. Hope it will change the minds of those who are pessimistic on CYMAO. Even JAVA which has a similar business structure as CYMAO has shot up RM0.38 last Friday. Latest plywood prices is between USD397 - 503 per m3 as of mid January 2007 as compared to USD340 - 448 per m3 a year ago. I am sure it is just a matter of time when CYMAO will get the attention similar to its peers.

Stock Portfolio Ending 26 Jan 2007

Totomaster's stock portfolio has risen for the 4th consecutive week into 2007, this time it manage to outpace the overall market KLCI by a huge difference. Week on week, the Main Index has risen by 1.93% while my stock portfolio manage to close up by 4.27%. During this period, I bought an additional 3,000 units of TAWIN @ RM1.68, 1,000 units of TENAGA @ RM12.40 & dispose 4,200 units of MAEMODE-WA @ RM0.54 leaving my cash balance at RM5,239.71.

Over the week, LIONDIV manage to touch a high of RM6.55 before succumbing to profit taking to closed the week unchange. Announcements from Bursa shows Datuk Cheng Yong Kim, nephew to Y. Bhg. Tan Sri William Cheng Heng Jem has disposed 10,900,000 units on the 22 January 2007. Can this attribute the fall of the share price?

To date, BJTOTO has not much participated in the rally in anyway. Most blue chips has scaled new heights day after day but BJTOTO is rather quiet and lackluster. Since December 2006, the KLCI has risen approximately 10% but BJTOTO is going the other direction. Looking at the daily price chart below, BJTOTO has been on the downtrend since hitting a high of RM4.98 end of November 2006 and is currently trading sideways with range between +-RM0.10. In my opinion, BJTOTO should have bottomed out by now and is trying very hard to break out from the downtrend triangle. However, any sudden burst in price should be well accompany by convincing volume else it will fall back into the trend again. The downside for BJTOTO is very low for now but the near term target should be around the RM5+ region.

The huge surge in my week on week profit is due to a big jump in MAEMODE-WA. Over the week, MAEMODE-WA jumped 30% due to a good quarterly report and an announcement in its participation in designing and construction of a coal fired power plant in Indonesia secured by its subsidiary for an amount of RM29 million. MAEMODE has been a trading side ways since early October 2006 and has sinced attracted attention due to the announcements. My target for its mother share is at a minimum RM2 while its warrant at RM1+ due to its niche business model and its ability to secure projects overseas. It has also a recurring income from service and maintenance to a coal mine in Indonesia amounting to approximately RM60 - 70 million over the next 4 years. Over the years, its nett profit has sinced grew 50% compared to FY2006 and 100% compared to FY2005. Many analyst reported a "Strong Buy" in this company tagging a fair value at RM1.70 and I am confident that the price will reflect a stronger uptrend for now. A major concern is its borrowings of over RM150 million but looking at the rate of its growth, this should not be view as a huge problem.

TAWIN has hit a low of RM1.62 but manage to close the week at RM1.70. In the meantime, the copper price has risen from its low of USD5,600 per MT to close the week up 4% at USD5,825 per MT but still way back from its all time high of USD8,800 per MT. The rebound of the copper price was mainly due to a previous drop which has been widely overdone. Although TAWIN is highly speculative but I believe the downside is rather limited but the upside will be substantial as long as TAWIN manage to churn out good profits in coming quarters. The TA shows that the MACD is gapping up and will cross each other real soon.

TENAGA latest results was pretty impressive showing a nett profit of RM1.25 billion or an increase of 70%. Excluding the exceptional and currency gain of RM350 million, it still comes out to a cool nett profit of RM900 million or 22% over the preceding quarters. If TENAGA manage to sustain the similar earning (excluding any exceptional gain), its est. EPS FY07 : RM0.95; est. PE FY07 : 13x @ RM12.40. I think TENAGA should be able to trade around PE16 - 17x translating a fair value of RM16.00. Latest filing shows that the foreign participation in TENAGA is heading to the allowable threshold of 25%, this shows how optimistic are the foreigners towards the largest power producer in the country. And, if the goverment decided to ammend the foreign equity percentage, imagine how high the price will shoot up. If the foreigners are so optimistic, why shouldn't we?