Stock Portfolio Ending 26 Jan 2007

Totomaster's stock portfolio has risen for the 4th consecutive week into 2007, this time it manage to outpace the overall market KLCI by a huge difference. Week on week, the Main Index has risen by 1.93% while my stock portfolio manage to close up by 4.27%. During this period, I bought an additional 3,000 units of TAWIN @ RM1.68, 1,000 units of TENAGA @ RM12.40 & dispose 4,200 units of MAEMODE-WA @ RM0.54 leaving my cash balance at RM5,239.71.

Over the week, LIONDIV manage to touch a high of RM6.55 before succumbing to profit taking to closed the week unchange. Announcements from Bursa shows Datuk Cheng Yong Kim, nephew to Y. Bhg. Tan Sri William Cheng Heng Jem has disposed 10,900,000 units on the 22 January 2007. Can this attribute the fall of the share price?

To date, BJTOTO has not much participated in the rally in anyway. Most blue chips has scaled new heights day after day but BJTOTO is rather quiet and lackluster. Since December 2006, the KLCI has risen approximately 10% but BJTOTO is going the other direction. Looking at the daily price chart below, BJTOTO has been on the downtrend since hitting a high of RM4.98 end of November 2006 and is currently trading sideways with range between +-RM0.10. In my opinion, BJTOTO should have bottomed out by now and is trying very hard to break out from the downtrend triangle. However, any sudden burst in price should be well accompany by convincing volume else it will fall back into the trend again. The downside for BJTOTO is very low for now but the near term target should be around the RM5+ region.

The huge surge in my week on week profit is due to a big jump in MAEMODE-WA. Over the week, MAEMODE-WA jumped 30% due to a good quarterly report and an announcement in its participation in designing and construction of a coal fired power plant in Indonesia secured by its subsidiary for an amount of RM29 million. MAEMODE has been a trading side ways since early October 2006 and has sinced attracted attention due to the announcements. My target for its mother share is at a minimum RM2 while its warrant at RM1+ due to its niche business model and its ability to secure projects overseas. It has also a recurring income from service and maintenance to a coal mine in Indonesia amounting to approximately RM60 - 70 million over the next 4 years. Over the years, its nett profit has sinced grew 50% compared to FY2006 and 100% compared to FY2005. Many analyst reported a "Strong Buy" in this company tagging a fair value at RM1.70 and I am confident that the price will reflect a stronger uptrend for now. A major concern is its borrowings of over RM150 million but looking at the rate of its growth, this should not be view as a huge problem.

TAWIN has hit a low of RM1.62 but manage to close the week at RM1.70. In the meantime, the copper price has risen from its low of USD5,600 per MT to close the week up 4% at USD5,825 per MT but still way back from its all time high of USD8,800 per MT. The rebound of the copper price was mainly due to a previous drop which has been widely overdone. Although TAWIN is highly speculative but I believe the downside is rather limited but the upside will be substantial as long as TAWIN manage to churn out good profits in coming quarters. The TA shows that the MACD is gapping up and will cross each other real soon.

TENAGA latest results was pretty impressive showing a nett profit of RM1.25 billion or an increase of 70%. Excluding the exceptional and currency gain of RM350 million, it still comes out to a cool nett profit of RM900 million or 22% over the preceding quarters. If TENAGA manage to sustain the similar earning (excluding any exceptional gain), its est. EPS FY07 : RM0.95; est. PE FY07 : 13x @ RM12.40. I think TENAGA should be able to trade around PE16 - 17x translating a fair value of RM16.00. Latest filing shows that the foreign participation in TENAGA is heading to the allowable threshold of 25%, this shows how optimistic are the foreigners towards the largest power producer in the country. And, if the goverment decided to ammend the foreign equity percentage, imagine how high the price will shoot up. If the foreigners are so optimistic, why shouldn't we?